Anarchy’s anatomy: Two-tiered security systems and Libya’s civil wars

ABSTRACT

No issue deserves more scrutiny than the mechanisms whereby popular unrest unleashes civil wars. We argue that one institution – two-tiered security systems – is particularly pernicious in terms of the accompanying civil war risk. These systems’ defining characteristic is the juxtaposition of small communally stacked units that protect regimes from internal adversaries with larger regular armed forces that deter external opponents. These systems aggravate civil war risks because stacked security units lack the size to repress widespread dissent, but inhibit rapid regime change through coup d’état. Regular militaries, meanwhile, fracture when ordered to employ force against populations from which they were recruited.     

武警指挥院校深化教学改革的几个着力点

积极适应中国特色军事变革，武警指挥院校教育反映军事变革的本质特征，应从教学理念、教学思想、学科建设和师资队伍建设等方面深化教学改革，大力营造和建设适合人才成长的机制和环境，培养符合新军事变格要求的新型武警指挥人才。     

The market and the military profession: competition and change in the case of Sweden

The rise of private military and security companies (PMSCs) challenges our notion of military professionals. PMSCs bring new claims to professional status and legitimacy outside military institutions and represent an increasing diffusion of - and competition over - military and security expertise. In light of this development, understanding the formation of professional identities in military and private security organisations is as an important undertaking. This paper contributes to this endeavour by analysing professional self-images in the Swedish Armed Forces and how these relate to PMSCs. The study is based on data collected from official documents, semi-structured interviews and a small-scale survey among senior military officers. Focusing on military understandings of PMSCs and contractors, the analysis provides much-needed insight into relational aspects of professional identity formation outside the US context. Furthermore, it points to discrepancies in organisational and group levels in understandings of commercial security actors, and paves the way for future research.     

美军试验鉴定技术发展研究

众所周知，美军的装备试验鉴定技术一直处于世界领先地位，对其进行深入研究有利于试验鉴定的发展。本文主要对美军试验鉴定的管理部门、类型、发展历程以及技术领域进行详细研究，系统梳理美军试验鉴定的整个过程，在此基础上，结合我试验鉴定的发展现状，取其精华，去其糟粕，为试验鉴定的发展提出了几点思考和建议。     

基于军事信息网格的电子作战文书系统建设

为构建适用于一体化联合作战的电子作战文书系统,提出建设基于军事信息网格的电子作战文书系统的具体方法。通过对军事信息网格与电子作战文书系统相互融合的论证,综合得出一套高效的一体化联合作战电子作战文书系统。该系统可以在一体化联合作战指挥中利用军事信息网格的强大处理能力,充分保障战区内各指挥平台与作战单元的互联、互通、互操作。     

军事欺骗战法分析的数学方法-理论*

针对军事欺骗战法定量分析困难的问题，采用基于贝叶斯统计推断和博弈均衡分析的数学方法在理论上为解决此难题提供了一种可行的方法。该方法首先定义基本概率矩阵，然后根据贝叶斯原理为交战双方构造用于统计推断的主观概率矩阵，并在由两个主观概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链与实施军事欺骗机会之间建立了对应关系。再将此关系推广到基本概率矩阵，即是否存在实施军事欺骗的机会将由基本概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链决定。数学分析表明：对于2×2基本概率矩阵，这样的偏序链长度为3、总数为8，通过对这些偏序链的分析。可以为军事欺骗战法的研究和运用提供科学依据。     

我国军事权的宪法规制

在我国,军事权是国家权力体系中一项独立的权力,它是中央军事委员会及其所属各级军事机关依照宪法授权而享有的对武装力量进行统率和管理的一切支配力的总和。我国历史上出现过的十几部宪法或宪法性文件均对其作出了规定。现行的＂八二宪法＂更是对军事权的权力来源、权力主体、权力范围、权力结构、启动程序和行使结果进行了较为完善的规制。在这些宪法规制的框架下,我们寻求着军事权的＂增强＂与＂节制＂这对二律背反的精妙平衡。     

Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?

Using annual data collected from 1988 to 2015, this study provides evidence of a non-linear relationship between military spending, economic growth and other growth determinants for the South African economy. The empirical study is based on estimates of a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model and our empirical results point to an inverted U-shaped relationship between military spending and economic growth for the data. Furthermore, our empirical results suggest that the current levels of military spending, as a component of total government expenditure, are too high in the South African economy and need to be transferred towards more productive non-military expenditure in order to improve the performance of economic growth and other growth determinants.     

军事欺骗战法分析的数学方法-应用

针对军事欺骗战法定量分析困难的问题,采用基于贝叶斯统计推断和博弈均衡分析的数学方法,在理论上为解决此难题提供了一种可行的方法。该方法首先定义基本概率矩阵,然后根据贝叶斯原理为交战双方构造用于统计推断的主观概率矩阵,并在由两个主观概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链与实施军事欺骗机会之间建立对应关系,再将此关系推广到基本概率矩阵,即是否存在实施军事欺骗的机会将由基本概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链决定。对理论成果的初步应用表明：通过分析由战场情报信息构成的基本概率矩阵的偏序链,可以科学地运用军事欺骗和反军事欺骗战法。     

积极探索训练规律,加强学员军事基础素质的培养

通过研究“4+1”人才培养模式下学员军事基础素质培养过程,改革军事基础课程教学体系和学员队管理模式,实现军事基础教学与学员队管理的有机衔接,强化学员旅的教学管理职能,形成“三位一体”的学员军事基础素质培养模式,建立学员军事基础素质评价的指标体系。